Article | July 17, 2020
The COVID-19 virus (C19) pandemic is turning out to be the event of the century. Even World War seems timid in comparison. We are in the 4th month of the virus (in non-China countries) and have gone past the lockdown in many places. Isn’t it time we re-think the approach? What if there is another wave of C19 coming soon? What if C19 is the first of many such events in the future?
Before we get into analysis and solution design, summarizing the C19 quirks:
While a large section of the affected population is asymptomatic, for some it can be lethal
There isn’t clarity on all the ways C19 spreads
It’s known to affect the lungs, heart, and kidneys in patients with weak immunity
It has been hard to identify a definitive pattern of the virus. Some observations in managing the C19 situation are:
With no vaccine in sight, the end of this epidemic looks months or years away
Health care personnel in hospitals need additional protection to treat patients
Lockdowns lead to severe economic hardship and its repeated application can be damaging
Quarantining people has an economic cost, especially in the weaker sections of society
If one takes a step back to re-think about this, we are primarily solving 2 problems:
Minimise deaths: Minimise the death of C19 and non-C19 patients in this period
Maximise economic growth: The GDP output/growth should equal or higher than pre-C19 levels
One needs to achieve the 2 goals in an environment of rising number of C19 cases.
An approach that can be applied to achieve this is:
Data driven health care capacity planning
Build a health repository of all the citizens with details like pre-existing diseases, comorbidity, health status, etc. The repository needs to be updated quarterly to account for patient data changes
This health repository data is combined with the C19 profile (disease susceptibility) and/or other seasonal diseases to determine the healthcare capacity (medicines, doctors, etc.) needed
The healthcare capacity deficit/excess needs to be analysed in categories (beds, equipment, medicine, personnel, etc.) and regions (city, state, etc.) and actions taken accordingly
Regular capacity management will ensure patients aren’t deprived of timely treatment. In addition, such planning helps in the equitable distribution of healthcare across regions and optimising health care costs. Healthcare sector is better prepared to scale-up/down their operations
Based on the analysis citizens can be informed about their probability of needing hospitalisation on contracting C19. Citizens with a higher health risk on C19 infection should be personally trained on prevention and tips to manage the disease on occurrence
The diagram below explains the process
Mechanism to increase hospital capacity without cost escalation
Due to the nature of C19, health personnel are prone to infection and their safety is a big issue. There is also a shortage of hospitable beds available. Even non-C19 patients aren’t getting the required treatment because health personnel seek it as a risk. This resulted in, healthcare costs going up and availability reducing.
To mitigate such issues, hospital layouts may need to be altered (as shown in the diagram below). The altered layout improves hospital capacity and availability of health care personnel. It also reduces the need for the arduous C19 protection procedures. Such procedures reduce the patient treatment capacity and puts a toll on hospital management.
Over a period, the number of recovered C19 persons are going to increase significantly. We need to start tapping into their services to reduce the burden on the system. The hospitals need to be divided into 3 zones. The hospital zoning illustration shown below explains how this could be done. In the diagram, patients are shown in green and health care personnel are in light red.
**Assumption: Infected and recovered C19 patients are immune to the disease. This is not clearly established
Better enforcement of social factors
The other reason for high number of infections in countries like India is a glaring disregard in following C19 rules in public places and the laxity in enforcement. Enforcement covers 2 parts, tracking incidents of violation and penalising the behaviour. Government should use modern mechanisms like crowd sourcing to track incidents and ride on the growing public fear to ensure penalty enforcement succeeds. The C19 pandemic has exposed governance limitations in not just following C19 rules, but also in other areas of public safety like road travel, sanitation, dietary habits, etc.
Maximise economic growth
The earlier lockdown has strained the economy. Adequate measures need to be taken to get the economy back on track. Some of the areas that need to be addressed are:
One needs to evaluate the development needs of the country in different categories like growth impetus factors (e.g. building roads, electricity capacity increase), social factors (e.g. waste water treatment plants, health care capacity), and environmental factors (e.g. solar energy generation, EV charging stations). Governments need to accelerate funding in such projects so that that large numbers of unemployed people are hired and trained. Besides giving an immediate boost to the ailing economy such projects have a future payback. The governments should not get bogged down by the huge fiscal deficit such measures can create. Such a mechanism to get money out in the economy is far than better measures like QE (Quantitative Easing) or free money transfer into people’s bank accounts
Certain items like smartphone, internet, masks, etc. have become critical (for work, education, critical government announcements). It’s essential to subsidise or reduce taxes so that these items are affordable and accessible to everyone without a financial impact
The government shouldn’t put too many C19 related controls on service offerings (e.g. shops, schools, restaurants, cabs). Putting many controls increases the cost of the service which neither the seller not buyer is willing or able to pay. Where controls are put, the Govt should bear the costs or reduce taxes or figure out a mechanism so that the cost can be absorbed.
An event like the C19 pandemic is a great opportunity to rationalise development imbalances in the country. Government funding should be channelized more to under-developed regions. This drives growth in regions that need it most. It also prevents excess migration that has resulted in uncontrolled and bad urbanisation that has made C19 management hard (guidelines like social distance are impossible to follow)
Post-C19 lockdown, the business environment (need for sanitizers, masks, home furniture) has changed. To make people employable in new flourishing businesses there could be a need to re-skill people. Such an initiative can be taken up by the public/private sector
The number of C19 infected asymptomatic patients is going to keep increasing. Building an economy around them (existing, recovered C19 patients) may not be a far-fetched idea. E.g. jobs for C19 infected daily wage earners, C19 infected taxi drivers to transport C19 patients, etc.
In the last 100 years, mankind has conquered the destructive aspects of many a disease and natural mishap (hurricanes, floods, etc.). Human lives lost in such events has dramatically dropped over the years and our preparedness has never been this good. Nature seems to have caught up with mankind’s big strides in science and technology. C19 has been hard to reign in with no breakthrough yet. The C19 pandemic is here to stay for the near future. The more we accept this reality and change ourselves to live with it amidst us, the faster we can return to a new normal. A quote from Edward Jenner (inventor of Small Pox) seems apt in the situation – “The deviation of man from the state in which he was originally placed by nature seems to have proved to him a prolific source of diseases”.
Article | December 4, 2020
Creative thinking explores the wonder world of creation. Creative thinking edit challenges and insert solutions. Thinking is not narrow minded; it is a brood minded side effect. Are you standing still , holding the sign detour? Detour signal and message “ you cannot go pass here.” This message is like concrete to narrow minded thinking.Brood minded thinking says it is another way, I will find it , dismissing blind spots.. Napeleon Hill stressed the importance of ones’ thoughts in his Book Think and Grown Rich. Yes, the drum beat rymthe of the mind is thinking and manifesting an outcome. Napeleon Hill message is to sweep yourself to success, lean on the Bibical scripture” As you think so shall you be” As you think so shall you be amplfies the constant and significant need for growth and expanding. An interesting simple guarantee; a burning desire and an idea survives on the basis of thought, of will, of consistency and of determination. Contary to desire is force of giving up. The giving up force is similar to a ballon that’s blown up , being popped or untied , spilling and releasing out the air that blew it up. While the barriers of thought can spout limits; heels of success potential are unlimited.
Thinking holds and embrace hands with the imagination, knowledge, visions,dreams, goals, wisdom,implementing a plan and an understanding. Consideration must ahere to a pattern of habit conditioning to implement and discover the enlightment engraved in devolping and being mindful of ones’thoughts.
Goals- action based ( preferably written instuctions for best results) providing guidance for a desired outcome. The necleus for goals achievement is : confidence, commitment, clarity, creavity and consistency. Determination, desire and discipline are unstoppable buddies who see each other everyday.This is goal code.
Imagination- imagination confess it is a continious activity seeking expression and is a storage center with creative wonders and unlimited possibilities.
Dream- Dreams are a reflection of a desire begging to be recognize and fillful its purpose.
Knowledge- Learning acquired through process of exposure,training ,education , reading, research or experiment
Vision: reflection or an image created by words. Vision boards are useful and should be accompanied by words to assist in creating a vision. For instance, hearding the words pinkchair will flash an image of a pink chair to your thoughts of a pink chair.
Plan- Plan is a diligent fan of goals. Plan provides instructional and clarity on a proposal; action to be taken and potential of its being productive, profitable and feasible. A plan is mission related, written and allow simple,easy and effective and steps for implementing
What are the influencers and principles that are weaved into creavtive thinking?
Thinking habits- how you see,explain and intrepret
Environment- exposure ,travel, and surrounding
Adversity- solution and problem solving based
Altitude- level of understanding
Knowledge- Learning structure
Experience- practical knowledge gained
Personal Development- promotion of ones’ learning and a concentrated effort to be informed
Do not clog the drain. Thoughts are useful things. Thoughts can nudge you to be creative. Remember information is abundant and thoughts have power to create. “You can be what you want to be, do what you want to do, have what you want to have” Rev. Ike. This idea is associate with creative thinking. Creative thinking is an affirmation for success. It is also stated “ change your thoughts, change your life” Wayne Dyer Think, speak and affirm is a side effect lingering in creative thinking.Creative thinking is the drum beat of the mind. As it is said, Give the drummer some!”So I will so I can” is a mind with thoughts and thinking that erase impossibe.
Think About This- Be creative
Wear shoes that fit
Do not hurt your feet
With sores of regret
Wounds of doubt
And blisters of neglect
Article | April 7, 2020
The last time the world experienced a pandemic on the scale of COVID-19 was the Spanish flu pandemic from 1918 to 1920. All told, 500 million people were infected, and an estimated 35 million people succumbed to the virus. That’s because over a hundred years ago, the medical technology needed to fight that disease was non-existent. There were no lab tests to isolate the virus and no vaccines to treat it. What medical experts did enforce back then were the closures of schools and public places. Citizens were told to stay indoors and were advised against close contact with other people. Instead of placing the thermometer under the tongue or in the ear, the operator simply scans a person’s forehead to obtain an instant temperature reading without any physical contact.
Article | February 17, 2020
It’s clear that 2020 Healthcare will be the year of big market disruptions. With data-rich players such as Amazon and Google entering into the healthcare market space, many traditional health care systems are reviewing their own strategic plans with an eye towards staying relevant. According to a recent analytics survey by HIMSS, 32% of respondents said that population health is a top focus moving forward, and nearly 60% are eager to make improvements in care. Most traditional healthcare organizations recognize the importance data analytics play in better health management and patient outcomes, but many fall short in actively using these analytics to impact care. A 2019 poll found that 84% of healthcare executives believed analytics would be critical for success in the next three years, yet one out of every three of the healthcare organizations surveyed did not have a comprehensive strategy for analytics in place. Additionally, there is a huge potential to apply data analytics to areas beyond clinical care — a separate 2019 poll among health leaders found that while 90% of respondents report using data analytics in clinical areas, only 28% used analytics for effectiveness of care projects, only 22% were using it for population health, and a mere 11% were using it for chronic care management.